Poll Shows Obama
Slipping on Key Issues
Approval Rating on Health Care Falls Below
50 Percent
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff
Writers
Monday, July 20, 2009
Heading into a critical period in the debate over health-care reform, public
approval of President Obama's stewardship on the issue has dropped below the 50
percent threshold for the first time, according to a new Washington Post-ABC
News poll.
Obama's approval ratings on other front-burner issues, such as the economy
and the federal budget deficit, have also slipped over the summer, as rising
concern about spending and continuing worries about the economy combine to
challenge his administration. Barely more than half approve of the way he is
handling unemployment, which now tops 10 percent in 15 states and the District.
The president's overall approval rating remains higher than his marks on
particular domestic issues, with 59 percent giving him positive reviews and 37
percent disapproving. But this is the first time in his presidency that Obama
has fallen under 60 percent in Post-ABC polling, and the rating is six
percentage points lower than it was a month ago.
Obama has taken on a series of major problems during his young presidency,
but he faces a particularly difficult fight over his effort to encourage
Congress to pass an overhaul of the nation's health-care system.
The legislation has run into problems in the House and Senate, as lawmakers
struggle to contain spiraling costs and avoid ballooning the deficit.
Since April, approval of Obama's handling of health care has dropped from 57
percent to 49 percent, with disapproval rising from 29 percent to 44 percent.
Obama still maintains a large advantage over congressional Republicans in terms
of public trust on the issue, even as the GOP has closed the gap.
The erosion in Obama's overall rating on health care is particularly notable
among political independents: While positive in their assessments of his
handling of health-care reform at the 100-day mark of his presidency (53 percent
approved and 30 percent disapproved), independents now are divided at 44 percent
positive and 49 percent negative.
At the same time, there is no slackening in public desire for Obama to keep
pressing for action on the major issues of the economy, health care and the
deficit. Majorities think he is either doing the right amount or should put
greater emphasis on each of these issues.
On health care, the poll, conducted by telephone Wednesday through Saturday,
found that a majority of Americans (54 percent) approve of the outlines of the
legislation now heading toward floor action. The measure would institute new
individual and employer insurance mandates and create a government-run plan to
compete with private insurers. Its costs would be paid in part through new taxes
on high-income earners.
There are sharp differences in support for this basic package based on
income, as well as a deep divide along party lines. Three-quarters of Democrats
back the plan, as do nearly six in 10 independents. More than three-quarters of
Republicans are opposed. About two-thirds of those with household incomes below
$50,000 favor the plan, and a slim majority (52 percent) of those with higher
incomes are against it. The income divide is even starker among independents.
Republicans have hammered the president and congressional Democrats over the
cost of an health-care overhaul and its potential impact on the federal deficit,
twin issues that have emerged as a possible brake on any new package.
Obama's approval rating on his handling of the deficit is down to 43 percent,
as independents now tilt toward disapproval (42 percent approve; 48 percent
disapprove).
More broadly, 55 percent of Americans put a higher priority on holding the
deficit in check than on spending to boost the economy, compared with 40 percent
who advocate additional outlays even if it means a sharply greater budget
shortfall. This is a big shift from January, when a slim majority preferred to
emphasize federal spending.
Independents, who split 50 percent to 46 percent for more spending in
January, now break 56 percent to 41 percent for more fiscal discipline. But a
larger shift has been among moderate and conservative Democrats, who prioritized
more spending by about 2 to 1 in January and March. Now they are about evenly
divided in approach.
Nearly a quarter of moderate and conservative Democrats (22 percent) now see
Obama as an "old-style tax-and-spend Democrat," up from 4 percent in March.
Among all Americans, 52 percent consider Obama a "new-style Democrat who will be
careful with the public's money." That is down from 58 percent a month ago and
62 percent in March, to about where President Bill Clinton was on that question
in the summer of 1993.
Concerns about the federal account balance are also reflected in views about
another round of stimulus spending. In the new poll, more than six in 10 oppose
spending beyond the $787 billion already allocated to boost the economy. Most
Democrats support more spending; big majorities of Republicans and independents
are against the idea.
Support for new spending is tempered by flagging confidence on Obama's plan
for the economy. Fifty-six percent are confident that his programs will reap
benefits, but that is down from 64 percent in March and from 72 percent just
before he took office six months ago. More now say they have no confidence in
the plan than say they are very confident it will work. Among independents and
Republicans, confidence has decreased by 20 or more points; it has dropped seven
points among Democrats.
Approval of Obama's handling of the overall economy stands at 52 percent,
with 46 percent disapproving, and, for the first time in his presidency, more
Americans strongly disapprove of his performance on the economy than strongly
approve. Last month, 56 percent gave him positive marks on this issue.
More than three-quarters of all Americans say they are worried about the
direction of the economy over the next few years, down only marginally since
Obama's inauguration. Concerns about personal finances have also abated only
moderately since January.
Obama declared ownership of the economic recovery, but the public still
places far more blame on President George W. Bush's regulatory policies than on
Obama's efforts for the state of the economy. But in the first read of a
measurement that will be closely watched in coming years, nearly three in 10 say
they are personally "not as well off" financially as they were when Obama took
office.
Obama's leadership attributes remain highly rated, despite some slippage.
Seven in 10 call him a strong leader, two in three say he cares about the
problems of people like themselves, and just over six in 10 say he fulfilled a
central campaign pledge and has brought needed change to Washington. However, he
has dropped 10 points on the empathy question since April.
Obama still holds wide advantages over Republicans in Congress on the economy
and the deficit, although the GOP has rebounded marginally from earlier in the
year. The overall approval rating for congressional Republicans has increased
six points since April, to 36 percent (compared with 47 percent approval for
Democrats), and they have picked up five points vis-à-vis Obama on the deficit.
They have gained seven on health care.
Beyond partisan shifts in Obama's ratings, sharp declines have occurred among
those with household incomes above $50,000. And those with incomes above $50,000
now are split evenly between Obama and Republicans on dealing with health care.
In June, they favored Obama by a 21-point margin.
A total of 1,001 randomly selected adults were interviewed for this poll; the
margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
© 2009 The
Washington Post Company